Guide
TL;DR
You're looking at a dashboard that tracks which crypto narrative — DeFi, gaming, AI agents, and so on — is gaining leadership right now, and which coins inside that narrative haven't moved with it yet. Every number on screen traces back to a definition on this page; nothing here is a vibe.
Start on the leaderboard to see what's leading, check Regime to see whether alt-rotation is even happening, then drill into a sector to find the coins still lagging their own narrative. The rest of this guide walks through how every one of those numbers is computed, and what this project deliberately does not try to do.
What this answers
Rotation Radar tracks which crypto narrative — DeFi, gaming, AI agents, and so on — is gaining leadership right now, and which coins inside that narrative are lagging behind it, the rotation targets. Every term used here is precisely defined below, not a vibe.
How to read the sector screen
The sector screen turns the rotation thesis into a workflow: a leading narrative first, then the coins inside it that have not moved yet. Read it top-down.
- Start with the header. Only look inside a narrative whose rotation velocity is positive and rising — that is what confirms it is actually gaining leadership. In a flat or fading sector, everything below is noise.
- In the table, each coin's 7d and 30d figures are its coin-within-sector RS — its own return minus the sector's over that window. Positive means the coin is beating its own sector (it already led the move); negative means it is trailing the sector.
- The laggard flag marks coins trailing while their sector's RS is positive and rising — the rotation-candidate shortlist. The intuition: capital that led the narrative often rotates down into the names that have not caught the bid yet.
- Cross-read 7d against 30d. A coin that is fine over 30d but negative over 7d is a fresh laggard; one that is deeply negative on both has trailed for a month and may simply be weak, not coiled.
A flag is a read on relative positioning, not a forecast. A coin can trail because it is structurally weak or fading, not because it is 'due' — the same adverse-selection trap the non-goals below describe. The screen shows where a coin sits inside a moving narrative; it never states what happens next. And reaching for the highest-RS names means buying what already ran.
The four screens
Sector leaderboard
Ranks narratives by relative strength and change in market cap over 24h, 7d, and 30d windows. Answers: what's leading and what's turning.
Rotation Graph
Plots the twenty largest categories by market cap on relative strength and the momentum of that strength, re-based on Total3, into four quadrants. Answers: where each plotted narrative sits in the rotation right now.
Regime
BTC dominance, ETH/BTC, and Total3 as trend tiles, reduced to one regime label. Answers: is alt-rotation even permitted right now.
Relative strength within a sector
Choose a leading narrative, rank its member coins by relative strength, and flag the laggards — the rotation candidates — alongside a personal watchlist. Answers: inside a leading narrative, which coins haven't moved yet.
Reading the Rotation Graph
The Rotation Graph plots the twenty largest categories by market cap — not every category — on two axes: relative strength horizontally and the rate of change of that strength vertically. The quadrant idea comes from Relative Rotation Graphs® in equities, a registered mark of RRG Research; this is an independent, crypto-native implementation with its own pinned parameters. The plane splits into four named quadrants: Leading (strong and still gaining), Weakening (strong but losing momentum), Lagging (weak and still slipping), and Improving (weak but gaining momentum). A point with enough banked history trails a short tail showing where it has been over recent readings.
The names describe a current position, nothing more. A quadrant is not a forecast: a narrative in Improving is not thereby going to reach Leading, and one in Weakening is not fated to fall into Lagging. Rotation is often drawn as a tidy clockwise sweep through the quadrants, and it is not reliably clockwise — real narratives stall, reverse, and skip. Read the quadrant and the tail as a description of the present and recent past, and stop there.
Why the screens are empty right now
The upstream category feed only ever returns a snapshot of right now — there is no historical endpoint for category performance anywhere in it. So there is nothing to backfill; the only way to get a trajectory is to bank one snapshot at a time and let the series grow, starting from zero. That banking is this project's entire premise, so the emptiness below is proof the discipline is real, not a limitation to apologize for.
7-day and 30-day numbers are both live now — the accrual window described above has fully closed.
How every number is defined
These four definitions were fixed in code before any output was ever inspected — pre-registration. That discipline exists for one reason: it is what stops a metric from being quietly tuned after the fact until it flatters a story you already wanted to believe.
Category RS
A narrative's return over a window minus the total-alt-cap (Total3) return over the same window. Positive means the narrative is outperforming the alt market. Tracked over 7d and 30d windows.
Rotation velocity
The rate of change of a category's share of Total3 over a trailing window. Positive and rising means the narrative is gaining leadership.
Coin-within-sector RS
A coin's own return minus its category's return over the same window. Laggards — coins with negative coin-RS while their category's RS is positive and rising — are the rotation-candidate shortlist.
Regime label
A rules table over BTC dominance trend, ETH/BTC trend, and Total3 trend — the trend of the Total3 level (pure alt-cap growth), not the Total2/Total3 ratio. Stateless and transparent — no black box. The full table is below.
The regime rules table, in full
This is the actual lookup the code runs — not a paraphrase. Every regime label this project has ever emitted came from exactly this table.
As a worked example: BTC dominance up, ETH/BTC down, and Total3 down highlights the matching row below and reads as Risk-off. This is illustrative, not today's real reading — the real, live values are on the Regime screen.
How the label is decided
Every combination of the three trends above maps to a label through this fixed table. Anything not listed resolves to Neutral.
| BTC.D trend | ETH/BTC trend | Total3 trend | Label |
|---|---|---|---|
| up | down | down | Risk-off |
| up | up | up | BTC-led |
| up | up | flat | BTC-led |
| up | down | up | BTC-led |
| up | down | flat | BTC-led |
| up | flat | up | BTC-led |
| up | flat | flat | BTC-led |
| down | up | up | Alt-rotation |
Any other combination → Neutral.
If any of the three trends above isn't available yet, the label reads Insufficient history — the table below is never consulted with a missing input.
Each trend input has its own deadband before it counts as up or down: BTC dominance uses a 1.0 percentage-point deadband, ETH/BTC uses a 2% relative move, and Total3 uses a 3% level move. A move smaller than its deadband reads as flat, not up or down.
Insufficient history is checked before the table lookup ever runs, so a missing trend input can never be guessed into a real label — it always reads Insufficient history instead. Between the eight named rows above and these two catch-all rules, every regime label this project can ever produce is fully accounted for.
Glossary
Five terms this project uses precisely, not loosely.
RS (relative strength)
A return measured against a benchmark, not on its own. Category RS is a narrative's return minus Total3's return over the same window; coin-within-sector RS is a coin's own return minus its category's return over the same window. Positive means outperforming the benchmark; negative means trailing it.
Total3
The combined market cap of every coin excluding BTC and ETH — the alt-cap figure this project measures a narrative's share against. Total3's own level trend is also the third input to the regime label.
Rotation velocity
The rate of change of a category's share of Total3 over a trailing window. Positive and rising means a narrative is gaining leadership within the alt market.
Deadband
A minimum move a regime trend input must clear before it counts as up or down; anything smaller reads as flat. BTC dominance uses a 1.0 percentage-point deadband, ETH/BTC uses a 2% relative move, and Total3 uses a 3% level move.
ETH/BTC
The ratio of ETH dominance to BTC dominance — whether ETH (and larger-cap alts with it) is gaining or losing ground against BTC specifically, distinct from Total3's broader alt-cap trend.
What is and isn't covered
The Rotation Graph plots the twenty largest categories by market cap, not every category. The basket is chosen by size rather than by relative strength on purpose: ranking it by the same measure the chart plots would collapse it into one half of the plane.
Coin-level detail — the within-sector view and its laggard flags — is collected for twelve sectors fixed by a rule set in advance rather than by size. A sector outside that twelve still carries its own sector-level reading, but no coin breakdown.
What this is NOT
- Not a new-pair sniper. No mempool racing, no new-pair alerts, no sub-second latency.
- Not a backtested tool that calls which single low-cap coin takes off next. Betting on one coin's future move is dominated by adverse selection and survivorship bias — tokens that fail simply vanish from the data, which flatters every backtest that only ever measures the survivors. This project deliberately refuses to build, or imply, one.